What the US Election Outcome Could Spell for Financial Markets

September 19, 2024
  • Investor Services
BBH Market Strategists Win Thin and Elias Haddad note what a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris presidency could mean for US financial markets, as well as trade, fiscal, and industrial policies.
  • The US election remains too close to call ahead of the November 5 vote, but analysis of “Trumpenomics” vs “Kamalanomics” is well underway. A divided Congress is the most likely scenario in our view.
  • Trumpenomics bottom line: Fiscal and trade policies under a Trump presidency are inflationary. This could force the Federal Reserve to keep the policy rate restrictive for longer, underpinning a firmer USD and Treasury yields.
  • Kamalanomics bottom line: Fiscal and trade policies under a Harris presidency are less likely to complicate the Fed’s price stability mandate, supporting a neutral outlook for USD and Treasury yields.

We look at each candidate’s economic platforms and how those set the stage for potential financial market moves.

man standing on dollar
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