The 2024 Electoral College Roadmap |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Safe GOP |
|
Likely GOP |
|
Swing States |
|
Likely DEM |
|
Safe DEM |
|
Alabama |
9 |
Florida |
30 |
Arizona |
11 |
Maine |
2 |
California |
54 |
Alaska |
3 |
Iowa |
6 |
Georgia |
16 |
Maine 1 |
1 |
Colorado |
10 |
Arkansas |
6 |
Maine 2 |
1 |
Michigan |
15 |
Minnesota |
10 |
Connecticut |
7 |
Idaho |
4 |
Ohio |
17 |
Nebraska 2 |
1 |
New Hampshire |
4 |
Delaware |
3 |
Indiana |
11 |
Texas |
40 |
Nevada |
6 |
New Mexico |
5 |
District of Columbia |
3 |
Kansas |
6 |
North Carolina |
16 |
Virginia |
13 |
Hawaii |
4 |
||
Kentucky |
8 |
Pennsylvania |
19 |
Illinois |
19 |
||||
Louisiana |
8 |
Wisconsin |
10 |
Maryland |
10 |
||||
Mississippi |
6 |
Massachusetts |
11 |
||||||
Missouri |
10 |
New Jersey |
14 |
||||||
Montana |
4 |
New York |
28 |
||||||
Nebraska |
4 |
Oregon |
8 |
||||||
North Dakota |
3 |
Rhode Island |
4 |
||||||
Oklahoma |
7 |
Vermont |
3 |
||||||
South Carolina |
9 |
Washington |
12 |
||||||
South Dakota |
3 |
||||||||
Tennessee |
11 |
||||||||
Utah |
6 |
||||||||
West Virginia |
4 |
||||||||
Wyoming |
3 |
||||||||
Totals |
125 |
|
94 |
|
94 |
|
35 |
|
190 |
Safe & Likely |
|
219 |
|
225 |
|||||
In keeping with longstanding tradition, we are pleased to offer the 2024 version of our traditional Election Day scorecard. We do not predict the outcome of the presidential election (at least in writing), and it is certainly not our intention to endorse any candidates. This is simply a guide to what to watch on November 5 as the election unfolds, organized by when polls close state by state.
As usual, the guide is leavened with a fair amount of electoral history (and a little humor) for our readers who are as politically wonky as your faithful correspondent. Much of this information is drawn from the work done by political researchers and data scientists at RealClearPolitics.com and 270towin.com.
The 2024 election is fraught with existential anxiety on both sides, heightened by the fact that the election is likely to come down to only a handful of votes in only a handful of states. Early and absentee voting will play a large role this year. The exigencies of holding an election during a pandemic in 2020 swiftly broadened access to early voting or absentee ballots, and these trends have not reversed. In 2020, 46% of the public voted by mail, vs. 27% in person on Election Day and 27% in person prior to Election Day. We believe that absentee ballots and early voting will easily outpace day-of voting in 2024, with the potential to delay election results by a few days, particularly in battleground states.
Donald Trump starts the evening with 219 Electoral College (EC) votes more or less in the bag. Florida and Texas are both turning more purple over time as the Democratic party makes inroads, but a Democratic win in either state in 2024 would be the story of the evening. Kamala Harris has 225 EC votes in states that are either safe or likely Democratic votes. A state to watch here is Virginia, which, although reliably Democratic at the national level (with two Democratic senators), nevertheless has a Republic governor, who is a potential presidential candidate at some point in the future.
That leaves 94 EC votes in play in the perennial toss-up states. There are multiple paths to victory for either candidate through these states, although we note that Donald Trump won six of these seven states in his 2016 victory, and Joe Biden won six of these seven states in his 2020 victory. There has been a correlation of voting patterns, and we expect the same correlation could easily unfold in 2024.
What happens next Tuesday is not an election – it is 51 separate elections, and each state (plus the District of Columbia) has its own protocols regarding how and when ballots are processed and counted, and how and when the results are disclosed and ratified. It is possible that the results of votes on Election Day will be so overwhelming that delays in counting absentee ballots will be moot. It is probable, however, that these delays will prevent some critical battleground states from releasing election results until several days after November 5. Election Day may become Election Week, and some races may not be decided for several weeks.
As important as the presidential race is, control of the Senate is also in question this year: 42 Senate seats are in solid Democratic states or not up for re-election, while 46 Republican Senate seats are similarly safe. Twelve races in Arizona, Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Wisconsin, and West Virginia will determine if the Democratic party continues to control the Senate or yields to Republican leadership when the 119th Congress convenes on January 3, 2025.
The election math in the Senate favors the Republicans: The GOP needs to win only five of these 12 competitive races to retake the Senate, or only four races if a Vice President Vance can break ties. Conversely, the Democrats need to win nine of these races, or only eight if a Vice President Walz can break a tie.
Control of the House of Representatives is balanced on an even keener edge. All 435 seats are up for re-election, but gerrymandering makes the vast majority of these seats safe. Control of the House will come down to 22 competitive seats, of which seven are incumbent Democrat seats, 13 are incumbent Republican seats, and two seats are open. If all incumbents win their seats (a rather simplified assumption), Republicans will maintain their slight majority in the House.
Friends and clients of BBH know that we are fundamental investors, and that our investment strategy does not depend on the outcome of this or any other election. We would rather pursue the more durable approach of identifying assets that have a greater-than-average degree of control over their own destinies, and then buy them at an appropriate discount to their fundamental value.
Markets tend to prefer divided government, as it prevents either party from enacting sweeping legislative and regulatory changes. An important factor this year is that, absent intervening legislation, the individual tax provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Job Act (TCJA) will sunset on December 31, 2025. In other words, divided government means your taxes will likely go up. We encourage you to speak with your relationship team and wealth planners about the implications for your financial plans.
Now, on with the guide. Remember to vote, if you haven’t already, and settle in for what could be a long evening (or week).
Sixty EC votes are on offer at the 7 o’clock hour on election night. Georgia is the Big Peach, as Georgian voters determined the outcome of the presidency and (eventually) control of the Senate in 2020. A quick and convincing win by either presidential candidate could spell sweep for the rest of the evening, but the polls have all been within the margin of error, and counting absentee ballots could delay the outcome. In 2020, Georgia didn’t announce the outcome of the vote until the Friday after Election Day.
| State | Electoral College Votes | Category | What to Watch | The Senate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia |
16 |
Toss-Up |
Georgia was ground zero of the 2020 election and its aftermath, as the presidential race came down to 11,779 votes. Joseph Biden eked out a victory of 0.2%, the closest margin throughout the country. This marked the first time Georgia voted for a Democrat since Bill Clinton (D) in 1992. The race is just as close in 2024, although most recent polls have Donald Trump (R) a few points ahead of Kamala Harris (D). The outcome here – and the margin – could be an early indication of how the evening will unfold. Absentee ballots could play a role in the timing of the outcome: Georgia does not begin counting absentee ballots until the morning of Election Day. |
No races. |
Indiana |
11 |
Safe GOP |
Indiana voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008, but with this exception is a reliably Republican state. As such, pollsters spend little time there, but the most recent polls show Trump with a double-digit lead. | Incumbent Senator Mike Braun (R) is not seeking re-election, opting to run for governor instead. Jim Banks (R) should easily hold onto this Republican Senate seat vs. his opponent Valerie McCray (D). |
Kentucky |
8 |
Safe GOP |
Indiana voted for Bill Clinton (D) twice in the 1990s but has been solidly Republican since then. An easy win for Trump. | No races. |
South Carolina |
9 |
Safe GOP |
South Carolina hasn’t voted for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter (D) in 1976. Another easy win for Trump. | No races. |
Vermont |
3 |
Safe DEM |
Vermont was consistently Republican until 1992 but has voted Democratic in every election since then. Joe Biden (D) carried the state by 35 points in 2024, and Harris should fare similarly. | Bernie Sanders (I), an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, should easily win re-election over his opponent Gerald Malloy (R). |
Virginia |
13 |
Likely DEM |
Virginia was a reliably Republican state from 1968 to 2004 but has now voted Democratic for the last four elections. Joe Biden (D) won here by 10 points in 2024, and Harris is ahead of Trump in all polls. A Harris victory is the expected outcome. If Trump wins Virginia, he will likely have a good and early evening. |
Incumbent Tim Kaine (D) is widely expected to hold onto his Senate seat against his opponent Hung Cao (R). |
The polls in three additional swing states close at 7:30 p.m. North Carolina is the state to watch at this hour. Trump won Ohio handily in 2020, and West Virginia is among the most Republican of states.
37 EC votes are up at 7:30 p.m.
| State | Electoral College Votes | Category | What to Watch | The Senate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
North Carolina |
16 |
Toss-Up |
With the exception of a vote for Obama in 2008, North Carolina has been a reliably Republican vote for decades. Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020, although his margin of victory narrowed from 3.6% to 1.3%. Most polls have Trump winning again in 2024, albeit by an even narrower margin. The aftermath of Hurricane Helene may have an effect on turnout in the western part of the state, but to whose benefit is unclear. North Carolina does not begin counting absentee ballots until 5:00 p.m. on Election Day, so the results here will likely be delayed. Trump needs to win North Carolina. If Harris pulls off a victory here, the rest of the evening should unfold in her favor. |
No races. |
Ohio |
17 |
Likely GOP |
Ohio used to be the perennial toss-up state but has become more Republican over time. Trump won Ohio by 8.1% in 2016 and 2020 and is expected to win again in 2024. Ohio holds the record for voting for the ultimate winner most consistently over time. Other than 1960 and 2020, Ohio has voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since WWII. |
The Ohio Senate race will help determine the balance of power in the Senate. Three-term incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) faces stiff opposition from Bernie Moreno (R), in a state that Donald Trump is likely to win. |
West Virginia |
4 |
Safe GOP |
Trump won West Virginia by 42.1% in 2016 and 38.9% in 2020. A Trump win here is not in question. | Incumbent Joe Manchin – a nominal Democrat turned Independent – is not running for re-election. Jim Justice (R) should easily win this seat for the Republican party vs. his competition Glenn Elliott (D). |
If 7:00 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. were the amuse bouches of the evening, 8:00 p.m. offers a selection of hearty appetizers. One hundred seventy-one EC votes will be determined in these states, including the big prizes of Florida (30 EC votes) and Pennsylvania (19 EC votes). Democratic hopes spring eternal that Florida might turn blue, but Florida was one of only two states (along with Utah) in which Trump expanded his margin of victory in 2020. A Harris victory in Florida would come as a big surprise and bode well for her evening.
Pennsylvania does not begin processing or counting absentee votes until 7:00 a.m. on Election Day, so the count here may take some time to complete. Florida, on the other hand, started processing absentee ballots 25 days before the election, so the results here will likely come more quickly.
If Trump wins Georgia and North Carolina earlier in the evening – and assuming he wins all of the likely and reliable Republican states – a win in Pennsylvania would get him to exactly 270 EC votes and the Oval Office. The road to the White House winds once again through the Keystone State.
| State | Electoral College Votes | Category | What to Watch | The Senate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama |
9 |
Safe GOP |
Alabama voted for Trump by 27.7% in 2016 and 25.4% in 2020. The last time Alabama voted for a Democrat his name was Jimmy Carter. This will be an easy win for Trump. | No races. |
Connecticut |
7 |
Safe DEM |
Connecticut has been reliably Democratic for the past 30 years … | Incumbent Chris Murphy (D) should easily hold this seat for the Democrats. |
Delaware |
3 |
Safe DEM |
… as has Delaware. |
Incumbent Tom Carper (D) is not running for re-election, making this the first open Senate race in Delaware since 1970. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) should easily hold this seat for the Democrats. |
Florida |
30 |
Likely GOP |
Florida is one of only two states (along with Utah) where Trump expanded his margin of victory in 2020. The state voted for Clinton (D) in 1996 and Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012, but has since become a pretty reliable Republican state. On the other hand, a Harris win in Florida would be the surprise of the evening and augur a blue sweep. A ballot initiative to protect reproductive rights could influence turnout. |
Incumbent Rick Scott (R) is ahead in the polls vs. his opponent Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), but just around the margin of error. Republicans need to retain this seat to retake control of the Senate. |
Illinois |
19 |
Safe DEM |
Illinois has voted Democratic for the last eight elections, and 2024 will make it nine. | No races. |
Maine |
4 |
Likely DEM |
Maine is one of two states that allocates its EC votes, with two votes going to the statewide winner, and one for each congressional district (CD). Trump won the very rural CD2 in 2016 and 2020 and is likely to do so again in 2024. See the 9:00 p.m. hour for Nebraska, the only other state that allocates its votes by CD. Trump’s win of Maine CD2 should be essentially offset by a Harris win in Nebraska CD2. Harris should easily win Maine’s CD1 (the Portland urban area) as well as the statewide vote, earning her three EC votes. |
Two-term independent Angus King (I), who caucuses with the Democrats in the Senate, should easily retain his seat against opposition from Demi Kouzounas (R) and David Costello (D). |
Maryland |
10 |
Safe DEM
|
An easy win for Harris. |
Incumbent Ben Cardin (D) is not seeking re-election, making this an open race. Angela Alsobrooks (D) is up against former MD governor (and moderate Republican) Larry Hogen (R). Alsobrooks is consistently ahead in the polls, despite Hogan’s profile as a former governor. This should be a Senate seat hold for the Democrats. |
Massachusetts |
11 |
Safe DEM |
The last Republican that Massachusetts voted for was Ronald Reagan in 1984. An easy win for Harris. | An easy hold for incumbent Elizabeth Warren (D). |
Mississippi |
6 |
Safe GOP |
Mississippi is so red that pollsters don’t even go there. | An easy hold for two-term incumbent Roger Wicker (R). |
Missouri |
10 |
Safe GOP |
Trump won Missouri by 18.7% in 2016 and 15.4% in 2024. Not a competitive race. | Incumbent Josh Hawley (R) faces stiffer opposition than he expected from Lucas Kunce (D), but the polls point to a Hawley win. |
New Hampshire |
4 |
Likely DEM |
New Hampshire is closer than most observers note. The state voted for Hillary Clinton (D) by a mere 0.3% in 2016, which Biden (D) expanded to 7.3% in 2020. Harris has a comfortable lead in the polls in 2024. |
No races. |
New Jersey |
14 |
Safe DEM |
New Jersey last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 1988 and isn’t likely to break that streak this year. A Harris win. | An easy hold for incumbent Andy Kim (D). |
Oklahoma |
7 |
Safe GOP |
Oklahoma last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1964. Trump wins by double digits. | No races. |
Pennsylvania |
19 |
Toss-Up |
Along with Florida, Pennsylvania is the other big prize at this hour. Trump won the state by 0.7% in 2016 but lost to Biden by 1.2% in 2020. The polls for 2024 are all within the margin of error, making this a true toss-up. Officials cannot begin processing or counting mail ballots until 7:00 a.m. on Election Day. It took three days to announce the Pennsylvania outcome in 2020, and 2024 is likely to be no different. Don’t stay up late waiting on Pennsylvania. If Trump manages to win Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, the election is over. |
Incumbent Bob Casey (D) is in a tight race with his opponent Dave McCormick (R), and every poll is within the margin of error. The Democrats must hold onto this seat if they have any hope of retaining control of the Senate. |
Rhode Island |
4 |
Safe DEM |
Consistently Democratic since 1988. |
Incumbent Sheldon Whitehouse (D) should easily win a fourth term against his opponent Patricia Morgan (R). |
Tennessee |
11 |
Safe GOP |
Tennessee voted for Bill Clinton (D) in 1992 and 1996 but has been reliably Republican since then. The state is so reliably Republican that there are no polls. |
Marsha Blackburn (R) should be easily able to hold this seat for the Republican party against her competitor Gloria Johnson (D). |
District of Columbia |
3 |
Safe DEM |
In 1961, the 23rd Amendment gave residents of the District of Columbia the right to vote for president, and over 92% of them voted for Joe Biden (D) in 2020. The District is limited by law to no more electors than the least populous state. | No senators. For now. |
Only one state closes its polls at 8:30 p.m. Eastern time. Here’s your chance to get a bite to eat, refresh your cocktail, take a walk, or check social media to see if friends and family are still on speaking terms …
| State | Electoral College Votes | Category | What to Watch | The Senate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas |
6 |
Safe GOP |
Other than votes for hometown favorite Bill Clinton (D) in 1992 and 1996, Arkansas has been solidly Republican. Recent polls give Trump a 15-point advantage over Harris. | No races. |
The main course arrives. Fifteen states worth a total of 163 EC votes close their polls at 9:00 p.m., including the toss-up states of Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Texas may provide a little additional excitement as well, with a competitive Senate race.
| State | Electoral College Votes | Category | What to Watch | The Senate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona |
11 |
Toss-Up |
Arizona has voted Republican in all but two (1996 and 2020) of the last 12 elections. Trump won by 3.6% in 2016 but lost the state to Biden in 2020 by a mere 0.3%, and polls in 2024 are a dead heat. Polls are all within a margin of error. A ballot initiative to protect reproductive rights could influence turnout in a close election here. |
Kyrsten Sinema, an erstwhile Democrat turned independent, is not running for re-election. Ruben Gallego (D) is running against Kari Lake (R) and leads most polls. This should be a Democratic win of a Senate seat. |
Colorado |
10 |
Safe DEM |
Colorado was a generally reliable Republican state for many years but has voted Democrat for the past four elections. Biden won the state by 13.5% in 2020, and Harris should easily carry it in 2024. | No races. |
Iowa |
6 |
Likely GOP |
Trump won Iowa comfortably in 2016 and 2020 and should do so again in 2024. | No races. |
Kansas |
6 |
Safe GOP |
Kansas hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and they’re not going to start now. An easy win for Trump. | No races. |
Louisiana |
8 |
Safe GOP
|
An easy win for Trump. |
No races. |
Michigan |
15 |
Toss-Up |
Trump won Michigan by 0.3% in 2016, marking the first time Michigan voted Republican since 1988. Biden won the state by 2.8% in 2020, and the polls in 2024 lean slightly in Harris’s favor. This is a must-win state for both campaigns. Absentee ballots can be processed ahead of the election, but counting only begins at 7:00 a.m. on Election Day. |
Incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) is not seeking re-election, opening the race to Elissa Slotkin (D) and Mike Rogers (R). Slotkin leads the polls by a handful of points, and this should be a Democratic hold for the Senate. |
Minnesota |
10 |
Likely DEM |
Minnesota hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972. Trump was competitive in 2016, losing the state to Clinton by only 1.5%. Biden won by 7.1% in 2020, and Harris should have an easy win here in 2024. | Three-term incumbent Amy Klobuchar (D) should easily beat her Republican challenger Royce White (R). |
Nebraska |
5 |
Safe GOP |
Nebraska is the other state (along with Maine) that allocates one EC vote to each of its three CDs, with the statewide winner earning an extra two votes. The state is overall solidly red, but CD2 (encompassing Omaha) sent one EC vote for Obama in 2008, and again for Biden in 2020. In a close race, every EC vote counts. Harris should win Nebraska CD2, essentially offsetting Trump’s likely win in Maine CD2. |
Nebraska offers one of the more interesting Senate races, as Republican Deb Fischer (R) defends her seat against Independent Dan Osborn (I), who refused the endorsement of the Democratic party. A second Senate seat in Nebraska is also up this year, as Pete Ricketts (R), appointed to fill the seat vacated by Ben Sasse (R), runs for a full term against Preston Love Jr. (D). This should be an easy GOP hold. |
New Mexico |
5 |
Likely DEM |
Biden won New Mexico in 2020 by 10.8%, and Harris should win here easily. | Incumbent Martin Heinrich (D) is seeking a third term and should easily defeat Nella Domenici (R). The GOP has not won a Senate race in New Mexico since Domenici’s father Pete won a seat in 2002. |
New York |
28 |
Safe DEM |
New York hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Reagan in 1984. Harris leads former state resident Donald Trump by close to 20 points in the polls. | Incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand (D) is seeking a third term against her opponent Mike Sapraicone (R). This should be an easy Democratic hold. |
North Dakota |
3 |
Safe GOP |
So red they don’t even poll. An easy win for Trump. | Incumbent Kevin Cramer (R) should easily hold his seat against Katrina Christiansen (D). |
South Dakota |
3 |
Solid Trump
|
See North Dakota. |
No races. |
Texas |
40 |
Likely GOP |
Texas hasn’t voted for a Democrat since 1976, but Democrats have gained in the polls for the past three elections, while Republicans have shed votes. Trump won the state in 2020 by 5.6%, down from his 9.0% margin of victory in 2016. It's probably too soon to move Texas to the toss-up category, but increased population growth in urban areas continues to move the needle in favor of Democrats. If Texas goes blue, it will be the defining moment of the evening. Texas requires a reason for voting by mail, so the number of absentee ballots will likely be small. |
Texas offers an interesting Senate race, as Ted Cruz (R) defends his seat against Colin Allred (D). Polls show Cruz ahead, but close to the margin of error. This is likely a Republican hold of a Senate seat. |
Wisconsin |
10 |
Toss-Up |
Wisconsin was key to Trump’s 2016 victory. He won the state by a mere 0.7%, marking the first time a Republican candidate carried the state since 1984. Biden returned the favor by winning the state by the same 0.7% in 2020. Polls are neck and neck. Wisconsin is the most toss-up of the toss-up states. Wisconsin does not process or count absentee ballots until Election Day, so the final results could take a day or two to arrive. If Harris wins the safe and likely Democratic states as well as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, she will reach 270 EC votes. |
Incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D) is seeking a third term against Eric Hovde (R). The last Republican to hold this Senate seat was Joe McCarthy in 1952, making this the longest Democratic streak of any Senate seat in the nation. Baldwin leads the polls by a small handful of percentage points. |
Wyoming |
3 |
Safe GOP |
All Republican, all the time. Wyoming hasn’t voted Democrat since 1964, and they’re not about to change that now. Trump won Wyoming by 43.3% in 2020, his largest margin of victory. |
Incumbent John Barrasso (R) should easily retain his seat against opposition from Scott Morrow (D). |
After the excitement of the 9 o’clock hour, the short list of polls closing at 10:00 p.m. will not likely swing the race one way or the other. Two states with 10 EC votes are in play.
| State | Electoral College Votes | Category | What to Watch | The Senate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Montana |
3 |
Safe GOP |
Trump won Montana by 16.3% in 2020 and should easily carry the state again in 2024. Montana has voted Republican in 13 of the last 14 elections. |
For such a red state, Montana’s representation in the Senate is usually mixed. Incumbent Jon Tester (D) is seeking a fourth term but faces a tough race against opponent Tim Sheehy (R), who leads in most polls. Republicans last held both of Montana’s Senate seats in 1911. |
Nevada |
6 |
Toss-Up |
Clinton won Nevada by 2.4% in 2016, and Biden won by the same margin in 2020. The polls in 2024 are all within the margin of error. If Harris wins the “Blue Wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Nevada won’t matter. If, however, the candidates split the “Blue Wall,” Nevada’s six EC votes could make a difference. A ballot initiative to protect reproductive rights might influence turnout in Nevada. |
Jacky Rosen (D) is seeking a second term against opponent Sam Brown (R). Polls show Rosen with a slight lead. |
Five states and 84 EC votes are on the table at 11:00 p.m., but with little doubt as to the outcomes.
| State | Electoral College Votes | Category | What to Watch | The Senate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
California |
54 |
Safe DEM |
California was a reliably Republican state throughout the 1970s and 1980s, and, of course, produced the Republican hero, Ronald Reagan. The state has voted Democratic since 1992, voted for Biden by 29.2% in 2020, and is likely to vote for Harris by a similar margin. | Representative Adam Schiff (D) should easily win the seat vacated upon Diane Feinstein’s (D) death in 2023, against opposition from Steve Garvey (R). There are technically two elections here: a special election to fill this seat for the balance of the 118th Congress, and a regular election for a full term starting January 3, 2025, with the 119th Congress. |
Idaho |
4 |
Safe GOP |
Idaho has voted Republican for 14 consecutive elections, and 2024 will make it 15. Trump won the state by 30.8% in 2020. | No races. |
Oregon |
8 |
Safe DEM |
Biden won Oregon by 16.1% in 2020, and Harris should carry the state without any trouble. | No races. |
Utah |
6 |
Safe GOP |
Utah has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964. Trump won the state by 20.4% in 2020 and should easily win again in 2024. |
|
Washington |
12 |
Safe DEM |
Washington’s last vote for a Republican presidential candidate was 1984, and the state gets a little bluer each year. Biden won the state by 19.2% in 2020. | Incumbent Maria Cantwell (D) is seeking a fifth term against Raul Garcia (R), and she’s almost certain to get it. |
Still awake? Depending on earlier margins, the evening might be over, or perhaps just beginning, by the time the polls close in our 50th state.
| State | Electoral College Votes | Category | What to Watch | The Senate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | 4 | Safe DEM | Since Hawaii became a state in 1959, it has only voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 1972 (Nixon) and 1984 (Reagan). Biden carried the state by a margin of 29.4% in 2020, and Harris should win easily. | Incumbent Mazie Hirono (D) should easily win a third term against Bob McDermott (R). |
Up until a few years ago Alaska reported the results of its election well after the networks have called the winner of the presidential race, and sometimes even after concession and victory speeches have taken place. This year will likely be different, as close races elsewhere may take days to call. If you’ve stayed up late enough to learn the Alaska results in real time, then congratulations on being a true political junkie.
| State | Electoral College Votes | Category | What to Watch | The Senate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Alaska |
3 |
Safe GOP |
Since statehood in 1959, Alaska has only voted for a Democratic candidate for president once, in 1964 (Lyndon Johnson). The state voted for Trump by 10.7% points in 2020, and he is likely to win the state again in 2024. | No races. |
Conclusion
Polls and betting markets show this to be the closest election since, well, the last election. And yet polls are not votes, and the unprecedented volume of early votes, absentee ballots, and mailed ballots, along with the variety of ways in which these votes are processed and counted in different states, makes this election particularly hard to analyze. Additionally, the threat of litigation is much higher in this election as well and may delay a definitive outcome of some key races, including the presidency, even further. If you’re keeping a scorecard on election night, there are likely to be several gaps in your tallies when you finally go to bed.
Enough analysis. Vote.
Opinions and forecasts are as of the date of this commentary and are subject to change without notice.
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