""

Strategy Insight: Election Day Scorecard

October 30, 2024
With just days until the U.S. election, BBH Partner and Chief Investment Strategist Scott Clemons provides a state-by-state analysis of the effect of polling outcomes on the presidential and congressional races.
Subscribe

In keeping with longstanding tradition, we are pleased to offer the 2024 version of our traditional Election Day scorecard. We do not predict the outcome of the presidential election (at least in writing), and it is certainly not our intention to endorse any candidates. This is simply a guide to what to watch on November 5 as the election unfolds, organized by when polls close state by state.

As usual, the guide is leavened with a fair amount of electoral history (and a little humor) for our readers who are as politically wonky as your faithful correspondent. Much of this information is drawn from the work done by political researchers and data scientists at RealClearPolitics.com and 270towin.com.

The 2024 election is fraught with existential anxiety on both sides, heightened by the fact that the election is likely to come down to only a handful of votes in only a handful of states. Early and absentee voting will play a large role this year. The exigencies of holding an election during a pandemic in 2020 swiftly broadened access to early voting or absentee ballots, and these trends have not reversed. In 2020, 46% of the public voted by mail, vs. 27% in person on Election Day and 27% in person prior to Election Day. We believe that absentee ballots and early voting will easily outpace day-of voting in 2024, with the potential to delay election results by a few days, particularly in battleground states.

Conclusion

Polls and betting markets show this to be the closest election since, well, the last election. And yet polls are not votes, and the unprecedented volume of early votes, absentee ballots, and mailed ballots, along with the variety of ways in which these votes are processed and counted in different states, makes this election particularly hard to analyze. Additionally, the threat of litigation is much higher in this election as well and may delay a definitive outcome of some key races, including the presidency, even further. If you’re keeping a scorecard on election night, there are likely to be several gaps in your tallies when you finally go to bed.

Enough analysis. Vote.

Up Next
Up Next

Owner to Owner Fall Issue 2024

In this issue of Owner to Owner, we review the business environment as we enter fourth quarter 2024 and explore how departing leaders can smoothly transition from owning a business. We also lay out strategies for business owners to make the most of the current gift tax exemption amounts, and take a look at key findings from our second annual Private Business Owner Survey.
Read It

Opinions and forecasts are as of the date of this commentary and are subject to change without notice.

Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. (“BBH”) may be used to reference the company as a whole and/or its various subsidiaries generally. This material and any products or services may be issued or provided in multiple jurisdictions by duly authorized and regulated subsidiaries. This material is for general information and reference purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax or investment advice and is not intended as an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy securities, services or investment products. Any reference to tax matters is not intended to be used, and may not be used, for purposes of avoiding penalties under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code, or other applicable tax regimes, or for promotion, marketing or recommendation to third parties. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed, and reliance should not be placed on the information presented. This material may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted, or any of the content disclosed to third parties, without the permission of BBH. All trademarks and service marks included are the property of BBH or their respective owners.© Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. 2024. All rights reserved. PB-07896-2024-10-28

As of June 15, 2022 Internet Explorer 11 is not supported by BBH.com.

Important Information for Non-U.S. Residents

You are required to read the following important information, which, in conjunction with the Terms and Conditions, governs your use of this website. Your use of this website and its contents constitute your acceptance of this information and those Terms and Conditions. If you do not agree with this information and the Terms and Conditions, you should immediately cease use of this website. The contents of this website have not been prepared for the benefit of investors outside of the United States. This website is not intended as a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument or any investment management services for any investor who resides in a jurisdiction other than the United States1. As a general matter, Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. and its subsidiaries (“BBH”) is not licensed or registered to solicit prospective investors and offer investment advisory services in jurisdictions outside of the United States. The information on this website is not intended to be distributed to, directed at or used by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access the website.  Under certain circumstances, BBH may provide services to investors located outside of the United States in accordance with applicable law. The conditions under which such services may be provided will be analyzed on a case-by-case basis by BBH. BBH will only accept investors from such jurisdictions or countries where it has made a determination that such an arrangement or relationship is permissible under the laws of that jurisdiction or country. The existence of this website is not intended to be a substitute for the type of analysis described above and is not intended as a solicitation of or recommendation to any prospective investor, including those located outside of the United States. Certain BBH products or services may not be available in certain jurisdictions. By choosing to access this website from any location other than the United States, you accept full responsibility for compliance with all local laws. The website contains content that has been obtained from sources that BBH believes to be reliable as of the date presented; however, BBH cannot guarantee the accuracy of such content, assure its completeness, or warrant that such information will not be changed. The content contained herein is current as of the date of issuance and is subject to change without notice. The website’s content does not constitute investment advice and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. There is no guarantee that any investment objectives, expectations, targets described in this website or the  performance or profitability of any investment will be achieved. You understand that investing in securities and other financial instruments involves risks that may affect the value of the securities and may result in losses, including the potential loss of the principal invested, and you assume and are able to bear all such risks.  In no event shall BBH or any other affiliated party be liable for any direct, incidental, special, consequential, indirect, lost profits, loss of business or data, or punitive damages arising out of your use of this website. By clicking accept, you confirm that you accept  to the above Important Information along with Terms and Conditions.

 
1BBH sponsors UCITS Funds registered in Luxembourg, in certain jurisdictions. For information on those funds, please see bbhluxembourgfunds.com



captcha image ↻

Type in the word seen on the picture

I am a current investor in another jurisdiction

1 of 2

2 of 2