BBH Structured Fixed Income Quarterly Strategy Update – Q4 2024

Portfolio Managers, Neil Hohmann, Chris Ling, and Andrew Hofer provide an analysis of the investment environment and most recent quarter-end results of the Structured Fixed Income strategy.

4Q Highlights

  • The portfolio outperformed its benchmark during the quarter on the heels of favorable sector and rating emphases and credit selection results. 
  • We believe many credits’ valuations are overbought and disconnected from their fundamentals, necessitating a cautious and careful credit selection approach. 
  • We continued to find durable credits offering attractive value despite weak attractiveness of valuations of credits in indexes.
Performance
As of December 31, 2024

 

Total Return

Average Annual Total Returns

Composite/Benchmark

3 Mo.

YTD

1 Yr.

3 Yr.

5 Yr.

Since Inception

BBH Structured Fixed Income Composite (Gross of Fees)

1.51%

9.86%

9.86%

4.75%

4.45%

4.79%

BBH Structured Fixed Income Composite (Net of Fees)

1.42%

9.48%

9.48%

4.38%

4.09%

4.42%

BBH Structured Fixed Income Benchmark

0.43%

5.42%

5.42%

1.95%

1.99%

2.20%

Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Composite Inception Date: 01/01/2016

Returns of less than one year are not annualized. BBH Structured Fixed Income Benchmark is a combination of two indices. The Bloomberg US ABS Index was used prior to 11/1/2023; the Bloomberg U.S. ABS ex. Stranded Cost Utility Index is used subsequently. Due to recent changes in the composition of the Bloomberg US ABS Index, the new Bloomberg U.S. ABS ex. Stranded Cost Utility Index more closely reflects the effective duration of the strategy. One cannot invest directly in an index.

Sources: Bloomberg and BBH & Co.

Market Environment

Treasury note yields rose last quarter despite the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) campaign of cutting interest rates. The Fed cut the federal funds rate by a total of 0.50% during the quarter and 1.00% during the 2024 calendar year. Nevertheless, note yields rose across all tenors, on the quarter and for the year driven by lower expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025. Fed funds rate expectations for the coming year were 4.00% vs. 3.00% when the quarter began.

Most fixed income indexes experienced negative quarterly total returns due to the rise in interest rates. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index declined more than 3%. Excess returns to credit, however, were overwhelmingly positive as credit spreads in mainstream indexes narrowed further to their cyclical lows.

Short- and intermediate-duration fixed income indexes managed positive total returns for 2024 despite the rise in interest rates. Long-duration indexes posted negative total returns during the calendar year as the rise in interest rates offset any yield benefits. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index advanced just 1.3% in 2024, three points lower than its 4.5% yield at the start of the year. Excess returns to credit were positive across all major sectors in 2024. 

Strong economic data does provide a tailwind to credit, although risks are emerging with looming changes to U.S. fiscal policies. Headline consumer inflation prints have been declining but remain above Fed targets. Wage growth and job openings remain higher than historic averages and could still exert upward pressure on inflation. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index remains above its recession indicator. 

Corporate default rates diverged between bonds and loans, with the default rates on bonds lower and loans higher. Distressed exchanges and liability management exercises – which are undertaken by companies to avoid default but still disadvantage debtholders – are increasing. Overall, default rates for bonds and loans were steady year over year. Defaults continue to be concentrated among CCC-rated issuers, although default rates for all rating categories are below their respective long-term averages. Business loan performance appears healthy, as delinquency and charge-off rates are low and new bankruptcy filings are near pre-pandemic lows.

There are some signs of stress emerging for U.S. consumers. Loan delinquency and charge-off rates are rising to normal levels across many loan types, while the prospects of higher-for-longer interest rates and the resumption of federal student loan repayments loom as risks to straining the U.S. consumer. The increases in loss and delinquency rates remain within expected ranges and do not signal heightened risk of impairment to asset-backed securities (ABS) bondholders. 

Commercial real estate headlines remain disconnected from property-level dynamics. High-quality properties have refinanced and there have been minimal losses on paydowns in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) deals. Commercial real estate woes have not had an outsized impact on banks’ commercial real estate loan portfolios to date, as delinquency rates and charge-offs have been muted.

Heavy credit issuance and narrowing risk spreads were among the biggest stories of the fourth quarter and the 2024 calendar year. Headline issuance volumes were robust across credit sectors. Net issuance, though, was more moderate in most sectors, as most 2024 issuance was to refinance existing debt. Nontraditional ABS are the exception, as the outstanding market of nontraditional ABS grew 11% year over year on the heels of a 34% surge in volumes.


Exhibit I: Fixed income index returns for various indexes as of December 31, 2024, displaying duration, total return, and excess return. 

Valuations

The compression of credit spreads amid low net issuance growth and strong inflows into fixed income is suggestive of an environment where many credits’ valuations are overbought and disconnected from their fundamentals. BBH’s valuation framework1 lends credence to that theory. The framework identifies few opportunities today in traditional index segments of the credit markets. No cohort of the 15- or 30-year mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market screens as a “buy” candidate. Away from credits in mainstream indexes, bonds of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and a minority of nontraditional ABS sectors have narrowed to recent lows and screen unattractively for new purchases, although most non-traditional ABS and CMBS continue to screen attractively.

There remain opportunities in select subsectors of the market. In the structured credit markets, we continue to find opportunities in a variety of ABS subsectors through our bottom-up process. Opportunities are arising in the CMBS market as supportive property and deal-level dynamics are disconnected from the negative headlines impacting the sector. Debt issued by business development companies (BDCs) continues to offer attractive prospects. 

We continue to avoid non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) generally due to poor technical factors, unattractive valuations, and weak fundamentals, underpinned by poor housing affordability, low inventory of homes for sale, and stable-to-declining home prices.

 


Exhibit II: Market outlook by sector as of December 31, 2024.

Performance

The portfolio outperformed its benchmark during the quarter on the heels of favorable sector and rating emphases and credit selection results.

Security selection paced relative results during the fourth quarter. Holdings of bonds from Freddie K CMBS deals, bonds of business development companies, and debt from issuances of cell tower ABS, collateralized fund obligations, CLOs, aircraft equipment ABS, and data center ABS were additive to results. Positions in bonds of small-ticket equipment ABS detracted modestly from performance.

Sector and quality allocations were also additive to relative results during the quarter. The strategy’s exposures to strong-performing segments of the market, including CMBS and BDC debt, was additive to results, while exposures to ABS detracted slightly.

The strategy’s term structure exposures had a small but negative impact on results during the fourth quarter.

 


Exhibit III: Attribution as of December 31, 2024, showing average portfolio weight and gross contribution displayed in basis points.

Transaction Summary

We continued to find durable credits2 offering attractive value despite weak attractiveness of valuations of credits in indexes. The table below summarizes a few notable portfolio additions.


Exhibit IV: Notable transactions as of December 31, 2024.

Characteristics

At the end of the quarter, the portfolio’s duration was 1.9 years and continued to approximate that of its benchmark. The portfolio had 88% of its investments in investment-grade credits, while high-yield and non-rated investments represented 12%. The portfolio’s yield to maturity was 7.0% and remained elevated vs. bond market alternatives. The portfolio’s option-adjusted spread was 260 basis points (bps )over Treasuries; for reference, the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Index’s was 80 bps over Treasuries and the Bloomberg ABS Index’s, a proxy for traditional ABS, was 44 bps over Treasuries at quarter end.


Exhibit V: Characteristics as of December 31, 2024, including credit rating and sector allocation.

Concluding remarks

Credit investors face a choice today: keep buying expensive credit and hope that historical credit risks and pricing don’t return in the near term, or stick with valuation discipline, a longer-term view, and realism on the inevitability of a rise in credit spreads. We believe the valuation and credit disciplines embedded in our bottom-up process will help us balance caution and opportunity in this environment.

1 Our valuation framework is a purely quantitative screen for bonds that may offer excess return potential, primarily from mean reversion in spreads. When the potential excess return is above a specific hurdle rate, we label them “Buys” (others are “Holds” or “Sells”). These ratings are category names, not recommendations, as the valuation framework includes no credit research, a vital second step.
2 Obligations such as bonds, notes, loans, leases, and other forms of indebtedness, except for cash and cash equivalents, issued by obligors other than the U.S. Government and its agencies, totaled at the level of the ultimate obligor or guarantor of the Obligation. Durable means the ability to withstand a wide variety of economic conditions.
Basis point (bp) is a unit that is equal to 1/100th of 1% and is used to denote the change in price or yield of a financial instrument.

Definitions

Bloomberg US ABS Index is the asset backed securities component of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. The index includes pass-through, bullet, and controlled amortization structures. The ABS Index includes only the senior class of each ABS issue and the ERISA-eligible B and C tranche. The Bloomberg U.S. ABS ex. Stranded Cost Utility Index excludes certain stranded cost utility bonds included in the Bloomberg US ABS Index.

An index is not available for direct investment.

“Bloomberg®” and the Bloomberg indexes are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the indexes (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by Brown Brothers Harriman & Co (BBH). Bloomberg is not affiliated with BBH, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend the Strategy. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to the Strategy.

Risks

Investing in the bond market is subject to certain risks including market, interest-rate, issuer, credit, and inflation risk; investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities have prepayment and extension risks.

SASB lacks the diversification of a transaction backed by multiple loans since performance is concentrated in one commercial property. SASBs may be less liquid in the secondary market than loans backed by multiple commercial properties.

Asset-Backed Securities (“ABS”) are subject to risks due to defaults by the borrowers; failure of the issuer or servicer to perform; the variability in cash flows due to amortization or acceleration features; changes in interest rates which may influence the prepayments of the underlying securities; misrepresentation of asset quality, value or inadequate controls over disbursements and receipts; and the ABS being structured in ways that give certain investors less credit risk protection than others.

Below investment grade bonds, commonly known as junk bonds, are subject to a high level of credit and market risks.

Foreign investing involves special risks including currency risk, increased volatility, political risks, and differences in auditing and other financial standards.

The Structured Fixed Income Strategy Representative Account is managed with the same investment objectives and employs substantially the same investment philosophy and processes as the strategy.

The securities discussed do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for advisory clients and you should not assume that investments in the securities were or will be profitable.

Opinions, forecasts, and discussions about investment strategies represent the author’s views as of the date of this commentary and are subject to change without notice.

Issuers with credit ratings of AA or better are considered to be of high credit quality, with little risk of issuer failure. Issuers with credit ratings of BBB or better are considered to be of good credit quality, with adequate capacity to meet financial commitments. Issuers with credit ratings below BBB are considered to be of good credit quality, with adequate capacity to meet financial commitments. Issuers with credit ratings below BBB are considered speculative in nature  and are vulnerable to the possibility of issuer failureor business interruption. The Not Rated category applies to Non-Government related securities that could be rated but have no rating from Standard and Poor’s or Moody’s. Not Rated securities may have ratingsfrom other nationally recognized statistical recognized statistical rating organizations.

Brown Brothers Harriman Investment Management (“IM”), a division of Brown Brothers Harriman & Co (“BBH”), claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). GIPS® is a registered trademark of CFA Institute. CFA Institute does not endorse or promote this organization, nor does it warrant the accuracy or quality of the content contained herein.

To receive additional information regarding IM, including a GIPS Composite Report for the strategy, contact John Ackler at 212 493-8247 or via email at john.ackler@bbh.com.

Gross of fee performance results for this composite do not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees. Actual returns will be reduced by such fees. “Net” of fees performance results reflect the deductionof the maximum investment advisory fees. Returns include all dividends and interest, other income, realized and unrealized gain, are net of all brokerage commissions, execution costs, and without provision for federal or state income taxes. Results will vary among client accounts. Performance calculated in U.S. dollars.

The objective of our Structured Fixed Income Strategy is to deliver excellent returns in excess of industry benchmarks through market cycles. The Composite is comprised of all fully discretionary, fee-paying structured fixed income accounts over $10 million. Investments are focused on asset-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities, collateralized loan obligations, and corporate debt securities that are primarily investment grade. Non-investment grade securities may be held. Investments are focused on U.S. dollar denominated securities, but non-U.S. dollar securities may be held. The accounts are managed to a duration +/- 2 years of the Bloomberg ABS ex-Stranded Cost Utility Index. Effective December 1, 2022, the composite definition was slightly altered to establish a band around the duration of the Bloomberg ABS ex-Stranded Cost Utility Index.

Duration is a measure of the portfolio’s return sensitivity to changes in interest rates.

Standard deviation measures the historical volatility of a returns. The higher the standard deviation, the greater the volatility. The Sharpe ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate (the Fed Funds rate).

Traditional ABS include prime auto backed loans, credit cards and student loans (FFELP). Non-traditional ABS include ABSbacked by other collateral types.

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